Thursday, August 14, 2003

this time, insert some "total recall" or "planet hollywood" pun

Arnold Schwarzenegger is now trading for 62-64 on the TradeSports website. Just a couple days ago, I posted that people were overvaluing the likelihood of his being elected when he was trading for 50-55. By way of comparison, 62-64 is only 2-3 points less than what Bush 2004 is trading for right now on the same site, meaning that people are saying that AS has about the same probability of winning the recall than GWB has of winning the Presidential election. This is insane! (Again, he may well win, but that's a different matter from saying that right now he has a 62-64% chance of winning.) Please, given that I have made a rule that I will not involve myself in high-stakes prediction-market speculation, some weblog reader PLEASE step in and take advantage of this rank irrationality in the market!

Update, 10pm: Schwarzenegger for Governor last traded at 65.5, George W. Bush for President 2004 last traded at 65. The prevailing prices on the market are now giving AS a slightly better shot at winning his election than does GWB. Seriously, I have never been so sorely tempted to enter the world of gambling in my life. Still, I will hold off, but BEG one of my many moneyed readers to take my advice and bet everything they own here. Of course, you may then lose everything, but you have fabulous odds for almost tripling your money in less than two months!

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