Arnold Schwarzenegger is currently trading for 50-55 on the TradeSports market for the California gubernatorial race. While he may well win, this is too high a price (equivalent to saying he has a 50%-55% chance of winning). Once again, I must restrain myself from entering into the realm of high-stakes prediction-market wagering in order to exploit these kinds of irrationalities of the market. However, you should feel free to take my advice and make bushels of money.
BTW, my mother a couple of nights ago on the phone said that "Now, did you see that Schwarzenegger is running for governor?" and I had to be sure to explain to her that if he won, he would only be governor of California, not Iowa, too.
BTW2, Yesterday, I sold ssome of the shares that I had bought in Lieberman at 7 on the low-stakes Iowa Electronics Market. In an earlier post that I won't bother linking to, I said that 7 was too low even though he's very likely not going to win, and as a result I made something like 45 cents (!) off the deal.
BTW3, there is not yet a market for will-Jeremy-be-slain-by-international-swindlers, although if there were I think some readers of this weblog would be itching to buy into it.