Tuesday, January 13, 2004

(sports) only potentially interesting if you watched the packers-eagles game this weekend

Here is how the market-based predicted probabilities of the Eagles winning (on TradeSports) changed over the course of the Packers-Eagles game. Note how one could have made a 3000-5000% profit in about 15 minutes if one had bet on the Eagles to win when they were trailing near the end of the game and facing 4th-and-26.

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