Tuesday, November 02, 2004


The GWBUSH stock on the TradeSports site is falling sharply. It is down around .28--meaning an estimate that Bush has a 28% chance of winning--from 57% earlier in the day. I can't decide if the magnitude of this decline represents a real shift in probability, or a much smaller shift in probability combined with speculative-of-a-panic selling that is driving the probability down farther than it should--in other words, people basing their decision less on an actual assessment of the (declining) underlying probability of a Bush victory and more on the direction that they think the TradeSports stock itself is moving. In any case, of course, all this means that early indications look favorable for Kerry, but how favorable is harder to discern. I certainly think, at 5:07pm, that Bush's chances of winning are more than 28% (but now less than 50%).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

No need to panic, my friend. This is merely an indicator that some benevolent entity has fixed the election. It's in the bag -- Beelzebub has lost, and Kerry will become our president in January. Unfortunately, one of the people responsible for the fix leaked the info and now there is a surfeit of betting on Kerry to win. It's just like the Survivor scandal.