Wednesday, June 21, 2006

i just shouted a profanity at my monitor. why?

Why, because of this CNN poll result:
Regarding potential Democratic candidates, 47 percent of respondents said they would "definitely not vote for" both Clinton, the junior senator from New York who is running for re-election this year, and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the party's candidate in 2004.

Forty-eight percent said the same of former Vice President Al Gore, who has repeatedly denied he intends to run again for president.

Among the Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani fared better than the Democrats... Only 30 percent said they would "definitely not vote for" Giuliani; 34 percent said that of McCain.
So, for McCain vs. Clinton, the most likely matchup as judged by online prediction markets, Hillary would have to win something like 85% of the voters who now say they are open to voting for either candidate in order to win. Even if the poll is off to its 3 point margin of error, she would have to win like 2:1 for those voters. Watching Hillary Clinton's march toward the Democratic nomination feels sort of like having deck chairs on the Titanic, if the Titanic had instead creeped unveeringly toward the glacier at plate-tectonic speed.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

so, Nader's got a shot?