Sunday, April 10, 2005

fools rush in where bozzo fears to tread

Well, "fears" might be too strong a word, but Tom does seem hesitant in his analysis that the Tradesports Papal Succession Market is overpricing the probability of the next Pope being Italian and underpricing the probability of the next Pope being a surprise candidate (not among the 17 that Tradesports offers official contracts for). Not me. In the battle between The Wisdom of Crowds and The Wisdom of Bozzo, I'm going with Bozzo. I made wagers/investments in both shorting the PAPACY.ITALY contract and buying the PAPACY.FIELD contract. My position is such that I come out ahead under the scenarios of an obscure Italian selection or a non-obscure non-Italian selection.

Conclave, don't fail me now!


Anonymous said...

I'm going with an Italian choice.

Tom Bozzo said...

So you got non-obscure, non-Italian. Let me know how that worked out.