Thursday, July 05, 2007


dem puzzle

Due to a ten point swing, Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton in the predicted probability of being the Democratic nominee as indicated at (See the "Last" column above.) What's going on? I don't see anything in the news that would cause it. I wonder if it is some kind of market manipulation.

Hmm, in the time that it took me to post this, Hillary has gone back up to 42.6 vs. 38.4 for Obama. Very strange.

It could have been caused by someone who owned a large number of Hillary shares deciding to dump them. I wonder why. I wonder if it was Martha Stewart.

1 comment:

Tom Bozzo said...

Interesting... I suppose the news is Obama's late fundraising success, plus maybe that leading to more absorption of the long-not-news that the nutroots have been much more enthusiastic for Obama and Edwards than for HRC.