Sunday, October 15, 2006
Market-based probabilities for the past month of Republicans retaining control of the House of Representatives. ("Price" on the right hand side is the probability, so Republicans have gone from having about a 60% chance before the Foley scandal to now less than 35% after the scandal. Via Tradesports.) As ever, the market-based probability is either a better guess than one's own at the true probability, or it is a chance for one to make money.