or else maybe he's been missing dinner parties all these years but people just assume he's flaky and don't bother asking why afterwards

A footnote in Jon Elster's Explaining Social Behavior (p. 49):

[A]nother coincidence felt more significant. There are two experiences I've only had once. One is being invited to a dinner party and then forgetting I'd been invited. The other is being invited to a dinner party and then having the host call me up half an hour before I was supposed to be there, to tell me he had to cancel because of illness. The coincidence, which made me think for a second that someone was watching over me, is that this was one and the same party.

Complete non-sequitur: I'm making good progress on the Elster book despite a recent re-obsession with the Back Dorm Boys. If you've never seen their performance of "I Want It That Way", I'll embed below. I can't believe many sociologists still want to talk about globalization like it's a bad thing.

coincidence, or causality: lost luggage edition!

Regarding my lost luggage, I decided I couldn't count on Northwest anymore and decided to take matters into my own hands. So, I went to the mall and plunked down money for a razor to replace the one in my bag. Sure enough, shortly afterward I got the call that my bag had been located in Detroit. I received it this evening. The handle had come loose, taking the tags off with it. I'm not exactly sure how one goes about getting the handle to a piece of luggage repaired, although I suppose calling a shoe repair shop may be the obvious place to start (actually, a luggage repair shop would be the most obviously obvious place to start, but this does not seem to exist as a category of American small business).

(ongoing series) correlation, or causality?

January 30, 2007:

Eszter gives a talk in the renowned TechTalk series at Google.

January 31, 2007:

(via NYT)

causality bites, continued

From today's NYT:

"For years, at thousands of New York City intersections, well-worn push buttons have offered harried walkers a rare promise of control over their pedestrian lives. The signs mounted above explained their purpose:

To Cross Street
Push Button
Wait for Walk Signal

Millions of dutiful city residents and tourists have pushed them over the years, thinking it would help speed them in their journeys. Many trusting souls might have believed they actually worked. Others, more cynical, might have suspected they were broken but pushed anyway, out of habit, or in the off chance they might bring a walk sign more quickly.

As it turns out, [as usual], the cynics were right.

The city deactivated most of the pedestrian buttons long ago with the emergence of computer-controlled traffic signals, even as an unwitting public continued to push on, according to city Department of Transportation officials. More than 2,500 of the 3,250 walk buttons that still exist function essentially as mechanical placebos, city figures show. Any benefit from them is only imagined."

Incidentally, as a contrast to the false sense of causality highlighted in this story, I should note that I just received word that Blogrolling.com has been bought out by a larger company, a mere three days after it received national prominence upon being linked to from my weblog. Who says one cannot change the world from the comfort of one's RV?